Since then, the impact of the contraction has been exacerbated by the hundreds of cattle that perished in the unforgivingly hot and humid weather conditions during August. Nevertheless, genetic selection measures have enabled some progress to be made in remedying these losses by augmenting output levels.
“We’re more productive today. We don’t need as many beef cows today as we needed 10 years ago to generate a given level of production,” Scott Brown said.
Demand for red meat has seen an increase in recent years.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Americans ate, on average, 59.1 pounds or 26.8 kilograms of beef in 2022, which is a slight increase from 2021. Furthermore, since 2015, beef consumption has grown by nearly 10 percent.
As a result of this tight market, cattle prices have skyrocketed; they have more than doubled since March 2020 (up 133 percent). Breeders are incentivized by record prices and are thus parting with their heifers earlier than usual, consequently preventing the herd from growing – as noted by Baldwin.
“We are a year out from starting to see meaningful heifer retention,” he said.
“And when you start retaining heifers, those heifers are still three years out from when the herd starts really increasing in size across the country.”
Maintaining female calves for breeding results in an even lower beef production output and higher prices in the short-term, according to David Anderson, a Livestock Market Specialist from Texas A&M University. This further complicates the issue of finding adequate pastures to accommodate larger herds.
“The Southeast part of the US has seen some dry weather, but not as dry as the rest of the country,” said Brown.
“Could beef cows move there as a another way to generate a bigger national herd? Those kinds of shifts could try to happen.”
The USDA forecasts a further decrease in beef production for 2024.
From then on, Baldwin warned, “you will see retail prices be extremely firm. And ultimately it’ll force the consumer to choose if they want to continue paying those high prices.”
