Exit polling from Virginia’s governor race shows a tight contest with Abigail Spanberger holding slightly better favorability, but voters are clearly unhappy about the country’s direction and focused on pocketbook issues like the economy and immigration.
Exit poll data shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a net six percent favorability rating while Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears carries a seven-point unfavorability mark. That gap is small and voters in Virginia still look split on priorities, which keeps this race competitive and closely watched across the country.
A CNN poll showed that Virginia voters are dissatisfied with the direction the nation is headed.
In Virginia, the voters turning out to choose between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for governor are none too happy with the state of the nation. More than 6 in 10 say they’re dissatisfied with or angry about the way things are going in the country today.
Roughly one-fifth of voters in the state say that someone in their household was employed this year by the federal government, or worked as a federal contractor, and most say they’ve been financially affected by recent federal cuts — although only about 20% say those have had a lot of effect on them. At the same time, Glenn Youngkin, the state’s outgoing Republican governor, gets majority approval, and most voters say their family is financially holding steady or getting ahead.
Just over half of voters in the state say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, with a similar share saying that society’s support for transgender rights has gone too far. And 61% say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
Overall, views of Spanberger are modestly more positive than views of Earle-Sears. Roughly 8 in 10 voters say that they’re casting a ballot for their candidate, not against her opponent — and that’s roughly consistent for supporters of both candidates.
What’s driving voters? The plurality of Earle-Sears’ supporters say that it was most important to back a candidate who shared their values, and pick the economy and immigration as their top concerns in the state. Spanberger’s supporters are more divided on what candidate attribute matters most, but they’re clear in picking the economy as the state’s top issue, with health care ranking second. Relatively few voters on either side call education or crime their top issue.
This contest is also historic because both major-party nominees are women, and that fact has drawn national attention. Observers are treating the outcome as a barometer for 2026 trends, but local issues and the state’s economic picture are the real drivers on the ground.
For Republicans watching election night, the nuance matters: a nominal unfavorability gap for the GOP nominee doesn’t automatically translate into loss if voters prioritize the economy and immigration. With Youngkin finishing his term with decent approval, Republican turnout and issue focus could keep this race within reach despite headline-friendly favorability numbers.
