New Hampshire’s primary wrapped up largely as expected, with establishment picks holding their ground while a progressive insurgent energized parts of the Democratic base but ultimately fell short, and Republicans see a clear pathway to challenge the seat this fall.
Election night in the Granite State delivered few surprises: established candidates carried the day and the races landed where many forecasted. Republican figures celebrated steady performances as Democrats dealt with an internal debate over the party’s direction. The contest between an entrenched congressman and a left-wing challenger drew attention beyond the state’s borders.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas secured the nomination over Karishma Manzur, who had been cast as a test of how far the party’s left flank can push. Manzur’s rise energized activists despite a massive fundraising gap: Pappas reported $15.4 million while Manzur’s war chest was around $415,000. That disparity framed much of the post-primary analysis and is a reminder that money still matters in tight races.
Can progressives pull off one last major breakthrough in the 2026 primary season? That’s the question surrounding New Hampshire’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. There, Rep. Chris Pappas has been his party’s all-but-presumptive nominee since entering the race in April 2025, just after three-term Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement. The four-term congressman has collected a whopping $15.4 million for his campaign as of Aug. 19, far and away the most of any contender, while attracting support from a who’s who list of Democratic politicians and left-aligned groups.
But scientist Karishma Manzur, who belongs to a local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, has roused this sleepy primary in its final weeks. Manzur has raised just $415,000, but we’ve seen other left-wing candidates defeat or run very close to more establishment-oriented Democratic aspirants despite major financial disadvantages. Manzur has been well positioned to benefit from Democrats’ increasingly negative views toward Israel. In a recent debate against Pappas, she repeatedly criticized the actions of the Israeli government, and she’s highlighted Pappas’s support from donors aligned with the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Now, it’s unclear just how close this race actually is. A late August poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center raised eyebrows when it found Pappas only leading Manzur by 13 percentage points, 47%-34%, down from a 53%-29% lead in June. That survey prompted a response from Pappas’s campaign, which released an internal poll conducted around the same time that painted a far different picture: In that survey, Pappas led by 56 points, 71%-15%.
But money talks, so it may be a tell that two pro-Pappas groups felt the need to fork out $175,000 in the closing days for get-out-the-vote calls and texts supporting the congressman. Defend the Vote made a $100,000 outlay, while pro-LGBTQ Equality PAC spent $75,000 (if elected, Pappas would become the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate).
The purple-tinted Granite State has had a light-blue lean in recent federal elections, last voting for a Republican for Senate in 2010 and a GOP presidential contender in 2000. But that recent UNH poll also found Pappas narrowly trailing GOP frontrunner, ex-Sen. John E. Sununu, 45%-43%. To be clear, this was Sununu’s best recent poll result, and the Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Democrats about a 4 in 5 shot of winning the seat. Still, Democrats are more concerned about holding this seat.
The Sununu name is part of the path to a plausible Republican victory in what otherwise looks like a Democratic-leaning year. A former U.S. senator and representative, Sununu won this very Senate seat in 2002 versus Shaheen before losing a rematch against her in the blue-wave year of 2008. Despite that defeat, Sununu remains a prestigious brand name in New Hampshire politics. In January 2025, John’s popular young brother Chris finished off an eight-year run as governor before deciding against his own bid for Senate. Their father, John H. Sununu, served as New Hampshire’s governor for three two-year terms in the 1980s and then as President George H.W. Bush’s first chief of staff.
Now, 18 years after losing this seat, John E. Sununu looks to take the next step toward a comeback in Tuesday’s GOP primary. His main opponent is Scott Brown, another former senator. Brown famously won a 2010 special election for Senate in deep-blue Massachusetts to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, then lost reelection in 2012 to now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The Bay Stater then shifted his political career to the Granite State, where his family had a vacation home, and challenged Shaheen in 2014. But Brown lost to the Democratic incumbent despite that cycle’s red-wave electoral environment.
The GOP will lean on the Sununu legacy and these polling edges as the general election approaches, betting that name recognition and a disciplined ground game can flip a seat that has trended blue in recent cycles. Republicans see an opening and will press it with targeted messaging about electability and experience. Expect the fall fight to revolve around money, turnout, and which side can energize its voters most effectively.
Manzur’s insurgent run mattered because it exposed fissures in Democratic coalitions and forced Pappas to defend his record in ways he hadn’t planned. That dynamic is valuable for Republicans who prefer facing an establishment Democrat in the fall rather than a left-wing nominee with a mobilized base. For now, New Hampshire looks set for a competitive general election where traditional campaign fundamentals will decide the winner.
https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/2097438621955428791
Some on the left hoped Manzur would win, but she did not.
