Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn holds a commanding lead in Tennessee’s race for governor, according to a new poll from the Beacon Center. Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green 55 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, putting her on track to succeed two-term Gov. Bill Lee.
Beacon noted that Blackburn’s lead comes despite a contentious Republican primary against Congressman John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts. In its summary, the group wrote that the primary “left some bruised feelings within the party, but any lingering divisions have not yet dented her standing heading into November.”
The same poll found an even wider margin in the U.S. Senate race, a rematch between Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw. Hagerty leads 58 percent to 33 percent. The two also faced off in 2020, when Hagerty won by 27 points.
Trump’s approval slips underwater
The poll also tracked approval ratings for President Donald Trump, finding his numbers have gone negative in Tennessee for the first time in Beacon Poll history. Trump now sits at 48 percent approval versus 51 percent disapproval.
“This is a substantial development in a deep red state with a number of potentially competitive races this year. While Trump is barely underwater with voters, this is a monumental shift from his 30-point victory here just two years ago,” said Beacon CEO Justin Owen.
Looking ahead to 2028
The poll also tested hypothetical 2028 presidential primary matchups. Among Tennessee Republican primary voters, Vice President JD Vance leads the field with 56 percent, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 22 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 11 percent.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris leads with just 30 percent support, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (18 percent), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (11 percent), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10 percent), and Sen. Mark Kelly (8 percent).
Views on AI and data centers
The survey also asked Tennesseans about artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot, finding broad bipartisan approval — 54 percent approve, 34 percent disapprove. Republicans approved by a net 26 points, Independents by 21 points, and Democrats by 10 points.
But when it came to data centers specifically, the poll found widespread confusion about basic facts. Facilities now commonly called data centers have existed for more than half a century, yet only 4 percent of Tennesseans correctly identified that timeframe. A plurality, 38 percent, guessed they’ve existed only within the past five years, while 31 percent said they weren’t sure.
“The truth of the matter is that, regardless of your personal views, data centers and AI are here to stay,” Owen said. “With so much misinformation circulating about them, we wanted to see how Tennesseans really feel about their impact before policymakers at all levels of government rush to respond with potential regulations.”
