The U.S. foreign-born population fell by about 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026, a decline tracked by the Center for Immigration Studies using Census survey data that counted naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors, and undocumented migrants.
The Center for Immigration Studies studied recent Census Current Population Survey numbers and reported a sizable drop in the total foreign-born population over an 18-month span. The report treats the decline as a notable reversal after years of rapid growth and breaks down the categories the survey tracks, including naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors, and illegal immigrants.
The CIS estimate puts the reduction in the undocumented population at roughly 2.3 million, moving from 15.8 million in January 2025 to about 13.5 million by July 2026. That figure reflects a net change that counts new arrivals as well as people who were deported, voluntarily left, legalized, or died of natural causes, not a straight tally of enforcement removals alone.
The study also notes that the total foreign-born population falling is the first decline of this kind since the 1930s, a historical shift with clear political implications. Conservative observers say the numbers underline the long-term consequences of federal immigration policy and enforcement choices at the border and beyond.
The recent drop followed a dramatic rise of about 8.3 million in the foreign-born population during the COVID-19 era, a surge that occurred under the leadership of former President Joe Biden. That earlier increase has been frequently cited by critics who argue the administration’s policies—intentional or not—contributed to a major population shift at a scale not seen in decades.
Survey data further breaks down who left or otherwise no longer counted in the survey: only 44 percent of the decline were workers, while the remaining portion consisted of elderly people, children, and non-workers. That mix complicates claims that the change is driven solely by employment or labor-market forces.
Analysts emphasize that the numbers capture many routes out of the undocumented count, including voluntary departures and legal status adjustments, which can mask the real enforcement picture. Still, for Republicans focused on border control, the headline figure feeds into broader arguments for stricter measures and sustained enforcement to prevent future surges.
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The methodology of the Current Population Survey and the CIS analysis matters because it combines multiple population flows into a single net figure. That netting effect makes the total change meaningful for long-term planning, but it also means the causes behind the dip require careful parsing rather than simple explanations.
State and local officials watching these shifts are likely to weigh short-term budget impacts and longer-term demographic trends as the nation adapts to a smaller foreign-born share. For conservative policymakers, the data offers political ammunition to press for tougher border management and clearer immigration rules that limit uncontrolled inflows and ensure orderly processing.
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