Workers between the ages of 22 and 34 who never finished college are experiencing one of the strongest job markets they’ve seen in more than two decades, according to a Burning Glass Institute analysis reported by the Wall Street Journal on Sunday night.
The unemployment rate among this group of younger, non-degree workers has fallen to levels that rival lows last seen in 2003, the analysis found. That marks a sharp turnaround from the trends the U.S. labor market has followed for years, in which college graduates typically fared better than those without degrees.
The situation for young college graduates looks very different. Per the Journal’s reporting on the analysis, those with degrees are now going through one of their toughest stretches in years, and workers with advanced degrees or backgrounds in science and technology fields are struggling even more than usual.
Why the Roles Have Reversed
The shift comes down largely to supply and demand. Skilled trades are short on workers as older tradespeople retire and immigration levels drop, creating strong demand for younger workers willing to fill those roles.
At the same time, more Americans hold college degrees than ever before, even as artificial intelligence increasingly takes over the entry-level tasks that companies have traditionally handed to new graduates.
A Strong Jobs Report Backs the Trend
The analysis follows a stronger-than-expected national jobs report released Friday. The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, unchanged from July. Economists had forecast only 55,000 new jobs and expected unemployment to tick up to 4.2 percent.
The private sector alone added 127,000 jobs in August, well above the 53,000 economists expected. July’s gain was also revised upward, from 30,000 to 71,000 jobs.
- Manufacturing payrolls rose by 16,000, compared with an estimate of 5,000. July’s manufacturing figure was revised up from a gain of 5,000 to 14,000.
- Durable goods added 15,000 jobs in August, following gains of 24,000 in July and 13,000 in June.
- Construction added 22,000 jobs after a gain of 18,000 in July, with demand fueled in part by a boom in data center construction.
- Leisure and hospitality added 62,000 jobs, an unexpected rebound after contractions in July and June.
- Retail added 1,400 jobs, wholesale added 7,800, transportation and warehousing added 5,000, and utilities added 2,500.
June and July’s job totals were also revised upward, adding a combined 55,000 jobs to the earlier estimates.
