The Chicago Bears travel to Green Bay this week to face the Packers in one of the NFL’s oldest rivalries, with Chicago listed as 3-point favorites despite starting quarterback Caleb Williams still sidelined.
Williams recently avoided a major injury scare after an MRI showed a hamstring strain but no tear following a game against the Vikings. In his absence, the Bears have turned to backup Tyson Bagent and have won their past two games by focusing heavily on the ground attack.
Through four games, Chicago has called 159 rushing plays, with roughly 130 of those carries split between running backs Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift. Both backs have topped 300 rushing yards and scored three touchdowns apiece this season. The approach has drawn comparisons to coach Ben Johnson’s time with the Detroit Lions, where he paired Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in a similar committee backfield.
Green Bay’s run defense has struggled significantly this season, which could play into Chicago’s hands given its run-heavy identity. But the Packers have other factors working in their favor: they’ll be playing at home, they have the stronger starting quarterback in Jordan Love, and they’re looking for payback after the Bears eliminated them from the playoffs last season.
Love has thrown for 1,041 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is widely seen as the main reason Green Bay has two wins so far. The Packers’ offense, however, has no running game to speak of, making the team one-dimensional and potentially easier for Chicago’s defense to prepare for.
The Bears’ defense ranks among the top three in the league in passing yards allowed per game, though that mark comes against a slate of quarterbacks that included Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith and Bryce Young — none known as prolific passers.
Ball control and turnovers could decide the outcome. Chicago has handled both well in recent weeks, but facing a backup quarterback on the road in Green Bay is viewed as a tough ask. Betting analysis from Outkick favors the Packers at +3, with Love expected to be the deciding factor.
