The Green Bay Packers travel to Detroit this weekend to face the Lions in a Week 7 NFC North matchup, entering as three-point underdogs despite a betting model that favors their chances against the spread.
The game features a high total on the board, with both teams showing uneven performance on defense and offense this season. According to DVOA ratings, the Lions sit at No. 17 overall, ranking No. 11 on offense but No. 25 on defense. The Packers are close behind at No. 18 overall, with a weaker No. 23 offense but a strong No. 4 defense.
Detroit’s defense has struggled much of the season and will be without star pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is inactive for the matchup. Detroit ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive DVOA and 25th against the pass, numbers that suggest trouble containing Green Bay’s passing attack.
The return of Packers running back Josh Jacobs has shifted the outlook for Green Bay’s offense, giving the team a stronger option to lean on the run rather than relying heavily on the passing game. That shift has led some analysts to expect fewer points scored overall than the total suggests, while still backing Green Bay to keep the game close or pull off the upset.
One betting model projects a final score of roughly 23.71 to 24.21 in favor of the Lions, a margin that would still allow Green Bay to cover the three-point spread. That same model also points to the under on the total points line as a correlated outcome worth considering alongside the spread.
On the Detroit side, questions remain about whether receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams will find room to operate against a Green Bay defense that has performed well statistically this season.
The Pick
The suggested same-game parlay for the matchup, as outlined by NY Post betting analyst Erich Richter, includes:
- Packers +3 and Under 53.5 total points (+272 odds, DraftKings)
- Josh Jacobs Over 12.5 rushing attempts (-130, BetRivers)
- Jacobs 22+ rushing attempts (+1200, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Richter, who writes betting picks for the New York Post, has posted strong results in player prop betting over the past two seasons, with a reported return on investment of 30.15 percent since 2022.
