New Michigan polling puts Republican momentum front and center ahead of 2026, with Congressman Mike Rogers showing strong leads in hypothetical general matchups and the governor’s primary shaping up to shift if Tudor Dixon enters. Voter splits in the Democratic Senate primary leave room for a GOP pickup, while the governor’s contest still has variables that could flip the dynamic. This piece walks through the numbers, the likely paths forward, and what they mean for Republicans aiming to reclaim ground in a pivotal Midwestern state.
Tuesday’s down-ballot disappointments in big-state contests don’t change the bigger picture: attention is already on 2026 and battlegrounds like Michigan. That state’s simultaneous Senate and gubernatorial elections make it a prime target for both parties, and recent surveys show Republicans nudging ahead in ways that deserve focus from campaign planners. When national energy meets favorable statewide math, the GOP can convert momentum into wins.
For the Senate, the name most Republicans are rallying around is Mike Rogers, who faces little primary opposition and carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement. That kind of unified support minimizes intraparty friction and lets Rogers pivot to the general election early and often. On the Democratic side, the primary looks unsettled: U.S. Congresswoman Haley Stevens is at 26 percent, state Senator Mallory McMorrow at 25 percent, and Abdul El‑Sayed at 20 percent in the latest polling snapshot.
Head-to-head numbers from John Garst’s survey show Rogers with clear double-digit advantages against each leading Democrat. Against Abdul El‑Sayed, Rogers holds 45 percent support to El‑Sayed’s 31 percent, with 24 percent undecided. In a matchup with Mallory McMorrow, Rogers leads 46 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided. And against Haley Stevens, Rogers is ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent still undecided.
Those margins matter because they signal both baseline GOP strength and potential crossover appeal in a state that can swing. A Republican candidate who consolidates the base and attracts independents can exploit the Democrats’ fractured primary and the relatively high undecided rates. With Trump’s endorsement in hand, Rogers can focus messaging on security, economic issues, and pragmatic governance—areas that often resonate statewide.
The governor’s picture is more fluid but no less consequential. Incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s tenure will end, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson appears positioned to win the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, Congressman John James currently leads at 33 percent in early looks, a healthy advantage but not an insurmountable one. The wrinkle is Tudor Dixon, who dominated the 2022 GOP primary and could reenter the field, altering dynamics immediately.
Polling suggests Dixon would shift the contest if she jumps back in; the survey shows that “if Dixon were to run, it would change the race for the GOP nomination dramatically.” Dixon remains a strong voice for the America First wing of the party and aligns closely with President Trump, which could re-mobilize a sizable portion of the GOP electorate. She has not announced a decision, but her potential entry forces Republicans to weigh unity against nomination battles that can sharpen messaging.
From a Republican point of view, Michigan presents both an opportunity and a test. The Senate upside is clear: a unified GOP ticket, early consolidation behind a credible nominee, and disciplined messaging can convert the current leads into a pickup. For the governor’s race, the party must balance enthusiasm for a proven primary winner against the need to unify around a general election standard-bearer who can hold suburban margins while energizing turnout in rural and exurban precincts.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
