Tom Tiffany still has a clear path to win in November despite a chaotic Wisconsin Democratic primary, narrow margins, and renewed doubts about the Democratic nominee’s record and appeal across the state.

I stayed up late watching the wild results from Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary and, like many people, I was stunned by how the polls got it wrong. Francesca Hong was being pegged as the dominant frontrunner in many early surveys, yet the vote turned different. The outcome left the GOP with a new set of calculations for the fall.

In the end Francesca Hong lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by just 0.42 percent, roughly 3,200 votes. Neither candidate cleared 40 percent of the vote, and both underperformed in their supposed strongholds of Dane County and Milwaukee County. Those narrow margins mean November is still very much up for grabs.

Before the primary, many conservatives believed Tom Tiffany had a strong chance against Hong, who made no effort to hide far-left positions. After the surprise result, a lot of attention shifted to Crowley and betting markets reacted accordingly. Those same markets and pollsters were convinced Hong would win by 22 points, which shows how flaky these early reads can be.

I voted in the primary because the choice felt risky either way, and I know others felt the same tension about letting a DSA-aligned candidate get a platform. Had Hong become the nominee, it would have energized the DSA and created momentum for more extreme nominees down the ticket. That scenario would have been bad news for the whole country, not just Wisconsin.

There’s a real chance some of Hong’s base will simply sit this one out if they view Crowley as a sellout, and that could cost Democrats crucial turnout. Crowley is being framed by some as a moderate alternative, but that framing hides several problems tied to his record. If those issues are brought into the open in the general, it could shift the race back toward Republicans.

Crowley’s resume is dominated by his role as Milwaukee County Executive, and outside Milwaukee that office carries baggage. Many Wisconsinites see the city as a drain on the state budget with persistent public-safety and education failures. Crowley hasn’t offered a convincing record of fixing those problems.

The Milwaukee Public Schools system is majority black and puts out some of the lowest test scores in reading and math nationally for comparable urban districts. That is a real, measurable failure affecting 15,000 children, and voters will want answers about what he did to change that. Crowley can’t dodge responsibility by arguing the school district is someone else’s job.

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Milwaukee also suffers from serious crime problems and is one of the most violent cities in the nation, which makes public-safety a live issue across the state. Crowley has not offered a clear, statewide plan to turn that around, and his record as county executive will be a natural focal point for critics. Voters in suburbs and rural areas will listen hard to how he explains his tenure.

Beyond schools and crime, there are tax and benefits issues that will hurt Crowley. County employees and retirees faced a lapse in healthcare coverage after a contract with UnitedHealthcare wasn’t renewed on time, and that’s the kind of local mess that has personal consequences for families. Stories like that land with voters and are easy to weaponize in a statewide race.

When negative stories stick, imagine his lines of defense. Will he shrug and say, “That wasn’t my job” when Milwaukee problems get tied directly to his leadership? Saying “That wasn’t my job” is not the kind of defense that persuades people who want accountability and results. That kind of messaging problem matters when you’re asking voters to trust you with statewide leadership.

Crowley himself has acknowledged his positions overlap in many ways with Francesca Hong on issues like policing, prisons, and taxes, often summarized as anti-police, anti-prison, high-tax policies. That admission hands Republicans a clear contrast to run on and gives Tom Tiffany ammunition to frame Crowley as a continuation of extreme left ideas. Voters who care about safety and fiscal responsibility will pay attention.

Will Crowley explain to Milwaukee parents how pushing kids back into failing schools is a winning plan? Will he reassure suburban moms that public-safety changes won’t put communities at risk or force uncomfortable classroom changes? Those are the direct, blunt questions that Republicans should make central to the debate.

If Tom Tiffany runs aggressively on those themes and ties Crowley to a record voters dislike, he doesn’t just have a shot — he has momentum to close the deal. The Democratic primary showed polls can be wildly off and voter sentiment can swing quickly; campaigns that adapt and push a clear message win. The final test will be who actually shows up and votes in November.