A new poll of likely Montana voters shows Republican Kurt Alme with a commanding lead in the state’s U.S. Senate race, well ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead.
The Quantus Insights survey, conducted September 14-15 among 625 likely voters, found Alme at 43.6 percent support, Bodnar at 24.3 percent, and Bankhead at 23.1 percent. About 7.2 percent of respondents remained undecided, and 1.7 percent said they would vote for someone else. Alme’s 19.3-point edge over Bodnar comes with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Alme led among both men and women in the survey, taking 47.3 percent of men compared to Bodnar’s 25.7 percent, and 40.3 percent of women compared to Bodnar’s 23.2 percent. Bodnar, however, led among independent voters, 40.3 percent to Alme’s 34.8 percent.
Most voters who picked a candidate said they were unlikely to change their minds. Of the 569 respondents asked about the certainty of their vote, 81.7 percent said they were definitely decided, 15.4 percent said they could still change their mind, and 2.9 percent were unsure.
On favorability, Alme stood at 48.4 percent favorable and 38.9 percent unfavorable. Bodnar’s numbers were closer, at 43.5 percent favorable and 41.8 percent unfavorable. Bankhead trailed both, with 32.7 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.
Consistent With Earlier Polling
The new numbers track with other surveys released earlier this year, all of which have shown Alme ahead, though by different margins. A GrayHouse poll from July had Alme at 41 percent, Bankhead at 25 percent, and Bodnar at 17 percent. A separate survey commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee put Alme at 45 percent, Bankhead at 30 percent, and Bodnar at 15 percent.
Fundraising Dispute Between Alme and Bodnar
The race has also included sharp exchanges over campaign fundraising. In August, Alme called on Bodnar to return $1.76 million his campaign had raised through ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising platform, arguing that Bodnar was hiding his true political leanings from voters.
“Seth Bodnar wants to hide who he really is while his campaign runs on liberal ActBlue cash,” Alme said, describing Bodnar as a “far-left Democrat in disguise” and pointing to Bodnar’s positions on taxes, immigration, transgender athletes, policing, and diversity, equity and inclusion policies.
Federal Election Commission filings showed Bodnar had raised more than $3.2 million through June 30, with roughly half of that total coming through ActBlue. Bodnar has previously registered as a Democrat in Connecticut, donated to Democratic candidates, attended a 2012 presidential debate event with Michelle Obama, and staffed his campaign with Democrats, according to earlier reporting.
