A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Democrats either leading or running even with Republicans in five Senate contests that could help decide control of the chamber next year, including races in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
The survey, released Saturday, found Democrats leading by 6 points in Texas, 7 points in Alaska and 3 points in Ohio. In Iowa, Democrats trailed by 1 point, and in Kansas the race was tied. Because the margins of error in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas range from 4.5 to 4.6 points, those three races are effectively statistical dead heats.
The polling also measured President Trump’s approval ratings in each of the five states, finding them underwater across the board. Approval ranged from a high of 41 percent down to 38 percent, while disapproval ranged from 55 percent to 60 percent. In Ohio, Trump’s approval stood at just 38 percent, with 60 percent disapproving of his job performance.
The poll pointed to a notable enthusiasm gap between the two parties. Ninety-seven percent of Democrats surveyed disapproved of Trump’s performance, while only 80 percent of Republicans approved of it. Independents leaned heavily negative as well, with just 27 percent approving and 71 percent disapproving.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The surveys were conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1. The overall sample included 2,946 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 points. State-by-state, the samples were: Iowa, 606 voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.6 points; Ohio, 616 voters, plus or minus 4.5 points; Texas, 615 voters, plus or minus 4.5 points; Kansas, 605 voters, plus or minus 4.6 points; and Alaska, 504 voters, plus or minus 5.1 points.
Economic Worries Loom Over the Midterms
The findings follow a separate poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which found that a majority of Americans blame President Trump for rising prices and the cost of living as the midterm election approaches. In that survey, only 17 percent of Americans approved of his handling of higher prices, and just 26 percent approved of his handling of the economy overall. About 65 percent of those polled blamed high prices on the president’s policies.
Analysts have noted that Republican performance in the midterms is likely to hinge heavily on inflation concerns and whether the party’s base turns out to vote.
