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Trump Polling Shows More Black Votes Than Any Other Republican Presidential Candidate in History

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Analysis of polls conducted by Bloomberg suggests that Donald Trump could garner between 14 and 30 percent of the black vote in 2020, a significantly higher number than any other Republican presidential candidate before him.

The Pew Research Center data supports this assertion, recording that Trump received eight percent of the black vote in the last election.

Newsweek reports:

The NAACP estimated that 5 million African Americans voted in the 1960 presidential election when Richard Nixon won 32 percent of the Black vote, according to Politico. Since then, the Black population has increased from around 10.83 percent or 19,418,190 people, according to an analysis of census data, to 13.6 percent of the overall population or 46,936,733 people.

The Black voting turnout has slightly increased in presidential elections from 58.5 percent of the eligible voting population in 1964, the earliest election for which such figures are available, to 58.7 percent in 2020, according to Statista. This means if Trump wins more than 13 percent of the vote share, he will gain the highest proportion of the Black vote since Nixon in 1960 and more individual Black votes.

In 2020, ninety-two percent of Black voters cast their ballots for Joe Biden.

“The Black vote helped him win in swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with Biden securing 88 percent of the Black vote in Georgia in 2020, for instance, but overall only winning the state by 11,779 votes, or 0.24 percent,” Newsweek reports.

Support for Biden has been steadily declining among Democratic incumbents.

The Newsweek report states, “Indeed, his favorability among Black voters in seven swing states slipped 7 percentage points from October to December 2023, to 61 percent, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. Trump’s favorability in the same period has remained steady at around 25 percent.”

“Black males especially cite prices of basic needs, food for example despite the decline in inflation,” Mary Frances Berry, historian at The Pennsylvania State University, told the magazine. “Some who are small business owners say under Trump it was easier for them to get federal loans, for example. They also cite the backlash against police accountability measures as the George Floyd murder discussion has receded into the sunset.”

Berry predicted that a significant number of those who voted in 2020 will opt to remain at home.

“Middle age and older Black women seem to take a better than Trump lesser of two evils posture. But nobody I know is excited about reelecting Biden. They like Kamala Harris, but lots of folks will probably stay home unless some unexpected positive change in economic prospects or civil rights occurs.”

President Trump’s campaign has observed the trend and intends to actively seek support from the black communities across America.

“This will be our strongest effort yet with the African American community,” Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign told Bloomberg News.

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