A new poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra holding a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, but the survey also finds neither candidate is particularly well-liked by California voters.
The poll, commissioned by Hilton’s own campaign and conducted by Echelon Insights this month, put Becerra ahead 52% to 37% among likely voters. Despite that gap, only 32% of respondents said they viewed Becerra favorably — exactly the same share who viewed Hilton favorably.
Becerra actually had a worse unfavorable rating than Hilton: 37% versus 30%.
The findings suggest Becerra’s lead may rest more on California’s heavy Democratic voter registration edge than on genuine excitement for his candidacy. Becerra, who has spent more than three decades in public office, has largely avoided reporters and public events since winning the June primary.
Hilton, meanwhile, is still introducing himself to much of the electorate. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they’d never heard of him, compared with 15% who said the same about Becerra.
“A majority of Californians want change, not more of the same,” Hilton told the New York Post, which first obtained the poll. “As we get closer to the election, we’ll be asking a simple question: why would you vote the same way and expect a different result?”
“Everyone knows Becerra wouldn’t change anything, and would just be a rubber stamp for the costs and craziness from his Democrat friends in Sacramento,” he added.
Trump Even Less Popular
President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Hilton, polled worse than either gubernatorial candidate — just 28% of California voters viewed him favorably, while 64% viewed him unfavorably.
“This poll shows that the only strategy Democrats have got — trying to tie me to President Trump — has completely failed,” Hilton said. “Californians know that the insane costs and craziness we all have to put up with here are caused by Democrat policies from Sacramento not policies from Washington.”
Still, when voters were asked directly how they’d vote if the election were held today, the result held steady: 52% for Becerra, 37% for Hilton, with 11% undecided.
Half of those surveyed said they would definitely or probably consider voting for Becerra, versus 40% who said the same of Hilton. On the flip side, 45% said they would not consider voting for Hilton at all, compared with 38% who ruled out Becerra.
A Possible Opening
The Hilton campaign points to one part of the poll as evidence of a path forward. When voters were presented with critical statements about Becerra’s record — including his time as U.S. health and human services secretary, during which hundreds of thousands of migrant children reportedly went unaccounted for — the race tightened considerably, to 44% Becerra and 42% Hilton.
Hilton, a former Fox News host and past adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, is hoping to become California’s first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office.
Echelon Insights surveyed 1,199 likely California voters in mid-September in English, weighting the results to reflect the expected electorate. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
