A new Fox News poll finds the Michigan U.S. Senate race is essentially tied, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a razor-thin 1-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, 50% to 49%, among likely voters.
The poll, released Wednesday, is the first Fox News survey of likely voters this election cycle, so it can’t be directly compared to earlier polling. But among registered voters, the race is nearly as close — El-Sayed leads 51% to 48% — marking a swing since August, when Rogers held a 4-point edge among registered voters, 51% to 47%.
El-Sayed’s supporters appear somewhat more locked in than Rogers’, with 87% saying they’re certain of their choice compared with 80% for Rogers. Overall, 15% of voters say they could still change their minds, including 18% of Rogers backers and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
Why the Race Is So Tight
Voters have roughly equal reservations about both candidates. Thirty-nine percent say they are extremely concerned that Rogers is too closely aligned with President Donald Trump, while 36% say they are extremely concerned that El-Sayed’s views are too liberal.
Favorability ratings are also close, with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively versus 44% for Rogers. Among registered voters, favorable views of El-Sayed have risen 5 points since August while Rogers’ have dropped 4 points.
El-Sayed performs best with women, Black voters, college graduates, voters under 45 and union households. Rogers draws his strongest support from men, rural voters, white evangelical Christians, married voters, and white voters without a college degree.
Each candidate is dominating within his own party: Rogers wins 95% of Republicans and El-Sayed wins 93% of Democrats. Rogers takes 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans, while El-Sayed captures 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small pool of independents leans narrowly toward El-Sayed.
A Favorable Climate for Democrats, With a Catch
Michigan voters currently favor Democratic control of the Senate by 5 points, 52% to 47% — a backdrop that should help El-Sayed. But he still has work to do uniting his own party after a hard-fought primary: 11% of likely voters who supported his primary rival, Haley Stevens, say they now plan to vote for Rogers.
