Cait Conley, a former Biden administration national security official, is projected to defeat two-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, The Associated Press reported late Thursday.
The race was one of the most closely watched in the country this cycle, with both parties pouring heavy resources into the district, which sits just north of New York City. The seat was carried by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, and analysts had flagged it as a potential pickup for Democrats. The Cook Political Report had rated it a toss-up, while Fox News Power Rankings called it “lean Democrat.”
Lawler spent much of the campaign trying to balance support for President Donald Trump with an image as an independent voice, as the contest grew increasingly bitter over immigration enforcement and taxes.
Among those backing Lawler were the parents of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from the district who was killed in Chicago while out with friends. The man accused in her killing is an illegal immigrant who had previously been arrested for shoplifting but was released without a federal immigration detainer under Chicago’s sanctuary city policy. Lawler and Gorman’s parents pointed to her death as evidence that Democrat-backed sanctuary laws — which are also in effect in New York — put Americans at risk. Lawler argued Conley would do nothing to address the fallout from illegal immigration.
Conley condemned Gorman’s killing and has said she opposes illegal immigration, though she has not spoken out against sanctuary laws specifically.
Conley served as counterterrorism director on the White House National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, then spent the rest of former President Joe Biden’s term as a senior advisor on election security at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. She is a military veteran.
Her projected win gives Democrats a seat they had targeted heavily as part of their broader push to retake the House majority.
