Americans felt more secure about their jobs last month even as they braced for higher prices in the near term, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Wednesday.
The September Survey of Consumer Expectations found that the perceived probability of losing a job within the next 12 months fell to 13.5 percent, the lowest reading since December 2024. People also said they felt better about their chances of landing a new job and were more willing to consider quitting voluntarily.
The average perceived probability of finding new work within three months of a job loss rose to 46.1 percent from 45.4 percent, pushing it above its 12-month average. The expected probability of quitting a job voluntarily edged up to 19.9 percent from 19.5 percent.
The drop in job-loss worries was concentrated among respondents aged 40 to 60 and those in households earning more than $100,000 a year. The rise in expected voluntary quits was driven by people without a bachelor’s degree and those over 40.
Consumers also lowered their expectations for a rise in the national unemployment rate over the next year, with that measure slipping to 43.9 percent from 44.4 percent.
Along with the brighter employment picture, households expect their finances to grow. Median expected household income growth rose to 3.1 percent, the highest level since February 2025, while expected spending growth climbed to 5.5 percent, its highest point since May 2023, with gains reported across age groups and education levels.
Confidence about keeping up with bills also improved. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months fell to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent, dropping below its trailing average.
Inflation expectations told a different story. Consumers now expect prices to rise 3.9 percent over the next year, up from 3.6 percent in August and the highest reading since May 2023. Expectations for inflation three years out ticked up to 3.3 percent, while the five-year outlook held steady at 3 percent.
Even with job security and debt confidence improving, households’ views of their own financial situation grew gloomier. More respondents said they were worse off than a year earlier, and more expected their finances to deteriorate over the coming year—a shift the survey ties to the lingering effects of persistent inflation and rising price expectations.
The survey was conducted from September 1 through September 30 among a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads.
