Virginia’s new governor is already underwater in approval, with independents turning away and a heated fight over data center incentives at the center of the trouble.
Six months into her term, Abigail Spanberger’s approval ratings sit in the mid-40s and the political heat is rising. Independent voters are especially sour, and that shift is driving a broader narrative that she’s out of step with everyday economic concerns. The debate over incentives for data centers has become a focal point for voters who feel affordability isn’t being addressed.
Spanberger supported tax breaks for data centers during recent budget negotiations, a stance that put her at odds with some colleagues and voters. That posture came during a widely reported standoff between the House and Senate over how to treat these large tech facilities. The policy fight has fed into a perception problem: voters who are worried about rising costs and strained local infrastructure are looking for someone who will protect their pocketbooks and neighborhoods.
https://x.com/NickMinock/status/2078155131997003904
Nearly half of registered voters in Virginia believe the commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll. The survey also finds that Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger’s approval rating is underwater, with 47% disapproving and only 44% approving of her job performance.
It’s not normal for a new governor to have numbers like these just six months into the administration. Only 21 percent of independent voters in Virginia said the commonwealth is heading in the right direction, according to the VCU poll.
UVA Political Scientist Larry Sabato tells 7News the governor didn’t do herself any favors battling with Senate Democrats over tax breaks for data centers.
But — he adds – the real problem for the administration is that voters feel the governor is failing to deliver on “affordability.”
[…]On data centers, the VCU poll read, “Virginia has seen significant growth in data centers in recent years, and they were a major focus of this year’s budget standoff between the House of Delegates and Senate. Prior to the poll, three-quarters of registered voters in Virginia (76%) said they had heard or read about data centers in the commonwealth. About 8 in 10 registered voters (81%) support requiring data centers to pay additional fees to offset increased electricity demand associated with their operations. Support is high across political affiliations, with Democrats (88%) and independent voters (75%) more likely than Republicans (69%) to support the requirement. A significant majority of registered voters (72%) oppose allowing data centers to receive a sales tax exemption as an incentive for locating in Virginia, including nearly half (49%) who strongly oppose the proposal. Opposition crosses party lines, with 73% of Democrats, 69% of Republicans and 61% of independent voters opposing the exemption.”
The poll details are stark: large majorities favor charging data centers extra for the power they demand and oppose sales tax breaks for those facilities. Voters across party lines, especially independents, view incentives for big tech as a giveaway paid for by ordinary residents. That cross-partisan resistance makes it a high-risk political move to champion generous exemptions or carveouts for data center operators.
Beyond taxes, the public concern isn’t abstract: people fear higher utility bills and local impacts. Data centers consume huge amounts of electricity and their growth has been linked to rising demand on regional grids, which can translate into higher rates for households and businesses. Locals also worry about land use and the spread of industrial-scale facilities into otherwise residential or rural areas.
On the campaign and governing side, this is simple politics: voters care about affordability and visible local effects, and they punish officials who seem disconnected from those priorities. Spanberger’s choices on incentives and the headline-grabbing budget fight have made it easier for critics to portray her as out of touch. In politics, perception matters; when voters see tradeoffs that hurt them, they don’t reward the architects of those tradeoffs.
From a Republican perspective, this is an opening to make a clear case for accountability and for policies that prioritize families and taxpayers over corporate giveaways. The argument is straightforward: demand public safeguards, require companies that stress local grids to pay their fair share, and stop offering tax breaks that shift costs onto residents. That message resonates with independents who worry about bills, roads, and reliable power.
Policy fixes are possible, but they require political courage and a willingness to put constituents first. Lawmakers can design fees or surcharges that reflect actual grid costs, tighten siting rules to protect communities from inappropriate land grabs, and insist on transparency in economic incentive deals. Those are the kinds of moves that rebuild trust faster than vague promises or backroom deals.
If Spanberger wants to turn her numbers around she must show tangible progress on affordability and neighborhood protections, not just technical tax arguments or industry-friendly exemptions. Voters have a short memory for nuance when bills arrive and construction starts in their backyards. The coming months will test whether she changes course or doubles down on policies that left many Virginians unconvinced.
