Hurricane Isaias was on track to make landfall Friday night as a major hurricane, with the National Hurricane Center shifting its projected landfall point east of Pensacola into the Santa Rosa and Okaloosa county area, Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a Friday afternoon briefing.
As of the briefing, Isaias remained a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds up to 120 mph. DeSantis said forecasters still believe some weakening is possible before landfall, but state officials are planning for the worst.
“We’ve said from the beginning we are going to assume that it’s going to make landfall as a major hurricane. And while there’s still some people that think it might weaken, it very well may, in fact, make landfall as a major hurricane,” DeSantis said.
He called the storm a “major event” and cautioned residents in its path not to underestimate it.
“But folks who are in the path of this storm know that this is not just going to be a random tropical system. It’s going to be a strong hurricane, and it’s going to potentially do a lot of damage,” he said.
DeSantis said the National Hurricane Center’s most recent track had shifted the expected landfall point east of Escambia County, with higher confidence building around a landfall near 11 p.m. in the Santa Rosa or Okaloosa county area, possibly right on the border between the two.
“If you look at the most recent track from the National Hurricane Center, they have shifted the expected landfall east of Escambia County – higher and higher probabilities that it’s going to make landfall tonight at about 11 p.m. somewhere in the Santa Rosa [and] Okaloosa County area, maybe somewhere kind of right on that border, it could shift a little, but it’s getting close enough to where there’s more and more confidence as this is going,” DeSantis said.
The governor also noted a possible silver lining for Escambia County residents near Pensacola Bay if the track holds east of the city.
“If it does shift to the east of Pensacola, it’s possible that the water in the bay there is actually pushed out, so you could actually have negative storm surge if you’re on that that weaker side of the storm,” DeSantis said.
What the National Hurricane Center is Saying
In a 2 p.m. ET advisory, the National Hurricane Center said tropical storm conditions had begun along the northern Gulf Coast, with a storm surge warning in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River.
At 1 p.m. CDT, Isaias was centered near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.2 West, moving north-northeast near 16 mph. Forecasters expected that motion to continue through the evening, shifting to a northward track Saturday, with landfall expected within the warning area Friday evening.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, with higher gusts, making Isaias a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Hurricane Center said some fluctuation in intensity was possible through the afternoon, but the storm was expected to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall. Weakening was expected to begin once Isaias moved inland, with the storm likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reached out as far as 205 miles, according to the advisory.
Residents of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties were urged to monitor local emergency management updates as the storm approached.
