Xavier Becerra says he’ll scrap California’s current high-speed rail plan and finish the project on time and on budget, but the numbers and history make that promise look out of touch with reality.
Xavier Becerra, the top Democrat in California’s governor race, has thrown his lot in with the idea of reviving the state’s beleaguered high-speed rail program by ripping up the current plan and starting anew. He insists the project can be finished on budget and on time, which is a tough sell given the project’s long track record of missed deadlines and ballooning costs. Voters who watched this project go from a $33 billion promise to a multi-decade headache have reason to be skeptical.
“I’m going to scrap the current configuration, and I’m going to make sure we finish,” Becerra said, according to Fox 26. “But we’ve got to do it on budget and on time.” Those are bold words, and they land against a history that doesn’t back them up. The project was sold in 2008 as a $33 billion system linking San Francisco to Los Angeles with a 2020 completion date, and that simple pitch has long since evaporated.
Costs and timelines have been rewritten again and again. By 2011 the estimate had jumped to about $98.5 billion, and completion slipped to 2033. Today the full Phase 1 price tag sits at roughly $126.3 billion, with service from Merced to Bakersfield expected around 2033 and full service from Los Angeles to San Francisco not penciled in until around 2040.
Promises that a single new leader can wave a wand and fix systemic failures are politically tempting but practically unlikely. The program has suffered from shaky planning, local lawsuits, environmental hurdles, and rising material and labor costs, all of which pile up beyond any single administration’s control. Throw in the political shifting sands in Sacramento and D.C., and timelines become wishful thinking rather than practical roadmaps.
On the campaign trail, the contrast is already a wedge. Steve Hilton, the leading Republican contender, slammed Becerra’s vow and pushed back hard on social media. “Xavier Becerra just announced he would ‘finish’ High Speed Rail ‘on budget and on time.’ ‘On time’ was SIX YEARS AGO!” Hilton wrote on X. “They’ve already spent HALF the budget and haven’t laid any track! Now we’re seeing why even Joe Biden and his team thought Becerra was useless.”
Hilton’s point taps into a deeper frustration felt by many taxpayers who have watched funds flow with little to show for them. That frustration is political fuel because it ties into broader themes about accountability, waste, and whether big government projects can be managed responsibly. Republicans will use those themes to argue that continuing the project under new promises is more of the same.
The race itself is shaping up to be a head-to-head between Becerra and Hilton, with current polling showing both candidates roughly an 80 percent chance of advancing out of the primary as the top two finishers. The primary is scheduled for June 2, and both campaigns are scrambling to frame the argument that best energizes their bases. For Hilton, attacking the rail program plays to fiscal conservatives and frustrated taxpayers; for Becerra, promising to finish the job appeals to voters who still want improved transit options.
Becerra also arrives with baggage from his time in Joe Biden’s cabinet and scrutiny around allies accused of campaign fund theft, which opponents have not been slow to highlight. That background complicates his message that he alone can clean up the rail mess, and it hands Republicans a simple narrative: governance failures followed by more of the same promises. In a tight state race, simple narratives win votes.
Practical questions remain unanswered: where will the extra billions come from, how will timelines be enforced, and who will be held accountable when new delays inevitably show up? Those are not rhetorical points — they’re the nuts and bolts voters want answered before they sign off on another round of spending. Without a credible plan for cost control, any pledge to finish on time and on budget will sound hollow.
At the end of the day, this fight is about more than a train line. It’s a referendum on how California handles major projects, whether leaders are held to promises, and if taxpayers will be spared another long bill for a project that keeps getting pushed down the road. Expect this debate to be a central theme as the campaign rolls into the primary and beyond.
